Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 240.683904 293.298032 358.600692 447.057825 566.058642 7.240958e+02 9.560527e+02
2025-07-20 187.750032 251.230584 340.823196 481.792587 708.800900 1.081845e+03 1.795968e+03
2025-07-27 156.556629 223.289566 326.359696 507.644610 844.516693 1.510262e+03 3.159530e+03
2025-08-03 134.453573 201.096124 311.339188 523.200243 967.230509 2.004089e+03 5.337239e+03
2025-08-10 117.020726 181.579041 294.304941 527.165717 1068.044557 2.538837e+03 8.707402e+03
2025-08-17 102.003704 162.795444 273.490391 515.725014 1128.474601 3.033810e+03 1.341543e+04
2025-08-24 89.928078 146.885948 254.282754 501.123902 1174.211514 3.544686e+03 2.049345e+04
2025-08-31 80.111537 133.435938 237.017125 485.467615 1210.050522 4.079122e+03 3.141692e+04
2025-09-07 77.476066 132.913312 245.601628 534.539725 1474.204299 6.031554e+03 8.469707e+04
2025-09-14 71.805407 125.593406 238.272408 540.578391 1602.320236 7.609669e+03 1.909193e+05
2025-09-21 67.841385 121.091240 236.252747 560.697808 1802.300084 1.024874e+04 6.448813e+05
2025-09-28 62.858713 113.819491 226.563788 555.682593 1898.827964 1.249147e+04 2.237047e+06
2025-10-05 61.510101 114.225808 235.657797 613.737029 2355.580907 2.099922e+04 1.115249e+09
2025-10-12 59.696311 113.382942 241.642149 665.561657 2863.324389 3.586519e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 57.398195 111.123955 243.556394 704.873847 3371.279756 6.065680e+04 NaN
2025-10-26 54.706857 107.595157 241.397123 728.717457 3829.841779 9.979964e+04 NaN
2025-11-02 51.693067 102.933729 235.262298 734.813125 4179.543074 1.553597e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 48.276928 96.932166 224.338813 717.230138 4313.150072 2.122928e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 45.072675 91.123732 213.112920 694.866858 4384.016429 2.816901e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 42.145579 85.713259 202.283779 670.983708 4418.090315 3.682632e+05 NaN
2025-11-30 41.973105 87.087185 211.962092 746.172142 5731.591367 1.578383e+06 NaN
2025-12-07 40.204768 84.244201 208.216724 755.490791 6300.627665 4.293610e+06 NaN
2025-12-14 39.019268 82.772454 208.576009 786.640385 7318.614861 3.182339e+07 NaN